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用firefox看吧。IE看不到。

先转一篇文。很喜欢张大春在台湾《苹果日报》每周的时评专栏。恰好这篇放在这儿有点意思。

＜果然有話＞活該他吃牛肉（張大春）

2009年10月27日蘋果日報  http://tw.nextmedia.com/applenews/article/art_id/32045930/IssueID/20091027 （戴tor前往）

開放美國進口牛肉究竟會讓民眾增加多少罹患庫賈氏症（人類狂牛症）的風險？這是一個機率問題？還是一個政策責任問題？是一個數學問題？還是一個當政者的權力道德問題？

行 政院衛生署回覆消基會對美國進口牛肉的質疑時是這麼說的：「國家研究院今年一月的研究指出，每人每天如果吃一個巴掌大、厚約0.5公分的帶骨牛肉，從出生 吃到80歲，其罹患『新型庫賈氏症』的風險低於百億分之一；如果每天吃134克、也是巴掌大、厚約0.6到0.7公分的內臟，則其罹患『新型庫賈氏症』的 風險低於百億分之1.5。」
照這個比例看，地球上的人類應該從未罹患過庫賈氏症。而已經確診為庫賈氏症患者的人若非罹患的是其他病症，就是與過去十七年來國際間繪聲繪影、 風聲鶴唳的狂牛恐慌概無關係。總的看來，衛生署希望讓民眾相信的不外兩端：在開放美國牛肉進口之前，民眾應該相信食用本地牛肉是安全的；在開放美國牛肉進 口之後，民眾應該相信食用美國牛肉也是安全的。台灣真是他媽的一塊福地！

玩弄戲法欺瞞民眾

的 確，台灣地區從未發現過由食用牛肉而發生的狂牛症病例，而所通報的新型庫賈氏症又沒有確鑿的、因食用牛肉而致病的證據，於是行政院農業委員會當然可以夸夸 其談地宣稱：民眾不宜過度恐慌。但是，衛生署卻不敢告知社會大眾：為什麼國家研究院的這個統計數字和我們已經具備的最基本的常識是相違背的。
以國家研究院的數字遊戲為骨幹所形成的這份說帖有真正的理據嗎？老實說：沒有。它唯一的 支持點就是賈庫氏症的潛伏期可以長達十年到數十年，當一種已經被醫界辨認出來的突變性蛋白質（普利昂蛋白質）導致海綿狀腦病變，引發大腦空洞化的症狀慢慢 明顯，而患者也即將（通常是在一年以內）死亡的時候，誰能夠提出足夠有力的證據說明：這是在十幾二十或是二十幾三十年前，患者吃過的哪一塊牛肉、牛迴腸、 牛扁桃腺所致呢？
正因為目前還沒有診斷上的實證，迫於國際貿易談判壓力的馬政府就有足夠的空間可以大肆玩弄欺瞞民眾的戲法，甚至還能夠出之以義正 辭嚴之教訓：終爾一生，日日食牛肉牛雜，罹病之可能也只有「百億分之一」、「百億分之1.5」，這分母、分子之間的巨大數差就成了國人「應該相信無危險」 的安全瓣；對美國（或是世界上任何狂牛疫區之國）試圖進口牛肉到台灣的抗拒都出於一種無視於「客觀數字」的恐慌。然而，政府有義務告訴國人實話應該是： 「新型庫賈氏症雖然是一種可怕的病，無法逆轉，不能治癒，且無從推證病源！不過，等你罹患了這病之後，也沒有百億分之一的機會證明是我開放進口的哪一塊牛 肉讓你變成這樣的。」
數十年來，國民黨每於社會認知出現重大歧異之時指責持異議之對手或群眾「不理性」。表面上看，以為「百億分之一」、「百億分之1.5」為多麼高的機率確乎不理性，但是不負責任的政府假「不理性」為詞而無視於「恐慌」之本質，就只能禍國殃民了。

作者為作家

还有长平的这篇

焚烧垃圾，政府功课先达标

番 禺垃圾焚烧发电厂和陕西的“周老虎”完全不一样，它有一定的讨论基础。遗憾的是，政府组织的项目通报会之后，很多人都想到了“周老虎”。原因是政府请来的 几位专家，都被网民搜索出还身兼“商家”，与这个项目有利益关联的嫌疑。在我看来，政府部门的诚信，正是此类事件的本质问题。

垃圾处理本身是一个技术问题，烧还是不烧，到哪里去烧，如何烧，烧前烧后该做什么，都需要相当专业的知识。在分工细化的现代社会中，没有人可以成为百科全书，刚刚研究完PX的毒害，又要弄清二噁英有多么致癌，还要去考察一下城市规划……当然不行，怎么办呢，花钱请人来做——政府就是最大的代理，中国政府更客气地自称“公仆”。

尽 管政府的形成历史比较复杂，但是其现代合法性都归结到这一点上，也就是由民众选举产生并纳税供养，为民众办事并接受民众监督。因此，当我看到身边的朋友都 在恶补化学、环境和城建知识，跟政府请来的专家辩论二噁英的毒害和垃圾焚烧发电厂的技术问题时，我的第一个反应是，政府既然不能做到让人信任，就应该把我 们交纳的税金退回来。

政 府似乎并没有反思这个代理关系，而力图把矛盾归结为技术问题，害得很多普通民众也陷入那些一知半解的专业知识中去。政府请来的专家说垃圾焚烧在国际上已经 有了相当先进的技术，人家的焚烧发电厂也建在生活区内，本来未必是谎言，但是由于其身份存疑，可信度大打折扣，也足以看出程序的重要。要知道政府官员也并 不是百科全书，在处理公共议题时，程序就是公平正义的全部保证。

因此我就很不明白， 2006年就确定选址在番禺大石会江村与钟村镇谢村的项目，为什么到了2009年才广为人知？这三年来的行政成本有多少，应该由谁来负责？番禺政府应该感谢周边居民觉悟得早，否则像江苏吴江那样，垃圾焚烧发电厂几近建成，才引发了周边居民的抗议，被迫停下，3亿元投资不知道该谁埋单。我更不明白的是，在此之前，选址是在石基镇凌边村，2004年因为遭到当地居民的坚决抵制而作罢，那么当时是否进行了充分的报道和讨论？如果当时这个过程已经公开进行了，新的选址就不用重复同样的故事了。

尤 其令人不能容忍的是，在该项目环评尚未通过、开工未获许可的情况下，广州市政府在今年初就发布了一道措辞强硬的建设通告，宣布“违反本通告，拒绝、阻碍国 家工作人员依法执行职务的，由公安机关依照有关治安管理处罚的法律、法规规定处理；构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。”一件涉及到公共利益和健康的大事，对 于公众参与竟然采用恫吓的办法，事先堵住理性的渠道，预埋了公众只能以较为激烈的方式发表意见的后果。要想恢复理性对话，政府应该先撤销这则通告并赔礼道 歉。

再 回到技术问题，政府不仅需要在这一个项目上说服公众（而不是公众用专业知识来说服政府），而且需要对此前的李坑项目作出交代。那也是采用国际先进技术建造 而成，为什么如今在几里地外还能闻到恶臭？其污染控制实际效果如何？如果那就是达标，番禺居民拒绝它理所当然；如果没有达标，原因是什么，如何修复，如何 避免重犯，谁来承担责任？

考虑到政府诚信和管理能力在民众中所获得的信任度，垃圾焚烧厂建在哪里都会遭到反对。为了不导致沉默的弱势人群吃亏，针对可能承受的心理压力、健康危害和房价贬值，政府应该事先制定补偿方案，并确定相应的谈判机制。

技术不过是冷冰冰的工具，而且往往还是一把双刃剑。上述问题得不到解决，国际上再先进的技术都跟我们的生活没有关系，甚至拿过来适得其反。